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1. Introduction

A new "Cold Fusion" or "LENR" device -- the Rossi/Focardi Energy Catalyser or eCAT was recently demonstrated at the University of Bologna, Italy on Jan 15, 2011:

Rossi-Focardi Energy Catalyzer

Unlike the Pons and Fleischmann setup, this uses Hydrogen and Nickel, produces large amounts of energy (more than 10KW), and can be turned on and off on demand.

This paper takes a "Devil's Advocate" position : if it's not real, how can the experiment be faked? And if it's faked, how can we detect it, or eliminate it?

And if all possible fakes are eliminated ... Sherlock Holmes' axiom applies.

This paper doesn't not include any NUCLEAR fakes.

2. eCAT Demonstrator Apparatus

The basic setup is

                                              *======> steam 
                                              |        outlet
                                         *---------*
                                         |    :    |
                                         |    :    |
                                         | Vertical|
                            Main         | Arm     | 
                            Unit         |    :    |
                                         |    :    |
                           Horizontal Arm|    :    |
                           *-------------*    :    |
                           |    Reactor       :    |
                           |   * - - - - - -* :    |
                           |   :Shielding   : :    |
           *------*        |   *- - - - - - * :    |
Water  ====| pump |=======>|::>: Heat       :-*    |
           *------*        |   : Exchanger  :      |
       *--------------*    |   *- - - - - - *      |
AC:--->| Control Unit |===>|::>: Resistors  :      |
       *--------------*    |   *- - - - - --*      |
            *------*       |   : Chamber    :      |
Compressed  | H    |======>|::>: Ni/H       :      |
Hydrogen    |      |       |   *- - - - - - *      |
            *------*       |                       |
            ^^^^^^^^       *-----------------------*
            scale            ||                || metal legs
                        *============================* 
                                 board
The components are:

The entire Horizontal and Vertical arms were enveloped in tinfoil for the December/January trials.

The presence or absence of any evidence of nuclear activity is NOT considered in this paper.

Operation:

3. Experiments

3.1. January Experiment

In December 2010 a team of scientists was allowed to examine the device, and performed a number of experiments.

In January a "press" demonstration was held -- though the reactor developed an internal problem (reportedly on the leads to an internal heating resistor), took a long time to "ignite", and ran at lower efficiency (higher inout power).

These two will be referred to as the "January" apparatus and experiment.

The things we know about the January apparatus as a whole are:

The things we do NOT know about the January apparatus include:

ASSUMING that ALL the water was converted to steam the total OUTPUT energy was computed:

Given the rate of flow, the output power (KW) and energy (KWH) were computed, and the INPUT power (KW) to the controller was subtracted.

The volume of the various elements were estimated by Villa to be:

The measured values are:

3.2. February Experiment

The February trail reportedly had the same general structure, except that is was only used to HEAT water, not to convert it to steam.

The (sole?) observer of the February run, Prof Levi, was allowed to examine everything except the central reactor, which he estimated to be about 1 liter in volume. He reported that a lot of the volume of the horizontal and vertical arms was insulation, and that lead shielding was visible around the reactor.

The things we know about the February apparatus as a whole are:

The things we do NOT know about the February apparatus include:

Note: Since all of the system was visible except the central reactor, and a high rate of flow was used, we can reasonably assume that ALL the water was sent through the system.

4. Methodology for FAKE eCATS and their Detection

The general methodology is:

  • Choose some kind of FAKE (eg batteries)
  • Presume that the ENTIRE unknown structure is made up of the Fake material.
  • Make NO allowances for implementation efficiency.
  • Use the energy density (by weight or by volume) to determine the MAXIMUM energy content of the fake.
  • Using the observed excess POWER (KW) of the system, determine how long you would have to run it to exhaust the energy.
  • If that time is LESS than the observed run time, then the FAKE is eliminated.

Some kinds of fake could also be detected by analyzing the output:

  • Analyze the chemical composition of the output, to make sure no 'combustion' products are hidden
  • Make sure that all the water which goes IN goes OUT
  • Weigh the device before and after, to see whether chemicals have been consumed, or combustion products stored

... but see Rothwell's Razor, below.

If both the Volume AND the weight are known, then calculate the maximum run time for both, and use the LOWER number.

4.1. Energy Densities

Energy densities are available at Energy density - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Some are given by volume, and some by weight.

4.2. FAKES by VOLUME

The January values are :

Volumes: Control: 60L, Horizontal : 22L Vertical : 9L = Total 91L
Flow Rate: 17.5 L/Hr (292 ml/min)
Input Power : 400W Excess Power 12.5 KW Factor 12.5/0.4 = 31

4.2.1. Pre-loaded Heat Sink

Proposed By : ....

The entire volume is composed of a material with high specific heat.

See Heat capacity, which has an entry for Volumetric Heat Capacity J·cm−3·K−1

Material Specific
Heat
Maximum
Temperature
Comments
Water 4.21 100 boils
Beryllium 3.367   melts?
Iron 3.53   melts?

Note that the heat capacity might also explain "heat after death", when the output power continues after the inputs are turned off.

This fake must be entirely contained in the main body of the apparatus.

... calculation to follow ...

4.2.2. Input Water Diversion

Proposed by : Rothwell?

The water which is pumped INTO the system is NOT all sent into the heat exchanger, but some is diverted into storage.

For example, if the observed output power is 10 times the input power, and only 1/10 the water is converted to steam then the apparent output will be FAKE. It can run until the diverted 9/10 of the water fills the reservoir.

Maximum run time = volume / storage_rate

Jan/Feb : Volume (H and V) : 22 liters Flow: x.xx litres/sec Factor : 10 Time:

... calculation to follow ...

4.2.3. Batteries in the Control Unit

From Wiki Energy Densities, the best batteries are Lithium-Ion, with an Energy density of 3.6 MJ/L

Presume that the entire volumes of the Control Unit is filled with battery material, and that the wires between the Control and Main units are capable of carrying any load.

Jan : Volume 60 litres. Total energy 778 KWH Run Time: 62 Hours
Feb: The control unit was inspected.

The weight remains the same before and after.

Note: this can be ADDED to the FAKE employed in the Main Unit.

4.2.4. Batteries in the Main Unit

Presume that the entire volume of the Main section (horizontal and vertical arms).

Jan : Volume 31 litres. Total energy 402 KWH Run Time: 32 Hours

The weight remains the same before and after.

Combined with Batteries in the Control Unit gives a total run time of 94 Hours.

4.2.5. Fuel Cell using Compressed Hydrogen in the Control Unit

The entire Control Unit is filled with compressed hydrogen (700 bar) with an Energy Density of 5.6 MJ/L.

A 100% efficient Fuel Cell (taking up NO space!) combines this with air to produce Electricity. (And ignoring the method by which the resulting steam or water is hidden.)

The weight DECREASES by the amount of hydrogen consumed. This could be offset by storing the resultant water.

Jan : Volume 60 litres. Total energy 1209 KWH Run Time: 97 Hours
Feb: The control unit was inspected.

4.2.6. Compressed Hydrogen burned with Air in the Main Unit

The entire Main Unit is filled with compressed hydrogen (700 bar) with an Energy Density of 5.6 MJ/L.

This is burned with air to heat the incoming water.

The resulting steam (and other air constituents -- N and CO2 -- are vented through the steam outlet).

In this case there is MORE water going out of the system than is put in.

The weight DECREASES by the amount of hydrogen burned.

Jan: Volume 31L Total Energy.: 625KWH Run Time: 50 Hours

This could be combined with the Run Time obtained from the "Fuel Cell" Control Unit : 147 Hours

4.2.7. Compressed Hydrogen burned with Compressed Oxygen in the Main Unit

If the main unit were sealed to prevent its burning air, then compressed oxygen must be used : this gives a combined energy density of 3.7 MJ/L

This produces pure water. This could be vented through the outlet or, if the volume of water is monitored, it could be sequestered in the Main Unit.

Jan: Volume 31L Total Energy.: 516 KWH Run Time: 33 Hour

This could be combined with the Run Time obtained from the "Fuel Cell" Control Unit : 130 Hours

4.2.8. Beryllium burned with Air in the Main Unit

The entire Main Unit is filled with Be, with an Energy Density of 125 MJ/L
(Be does not burn easily with air, because it forms a protective oxide).

Ignoring any Nitrogen/Carbon by-products, it forms BeO which can remain in the unit.

Jan: Volume 31L Total Energy.: 13961 KWH Run Time: 1117 Hours

This could be combined with the Run Time obtained from using Fuel Cells in the Control Unit : 1214 Hours

Note that Beryllium has a high Specific Heat .. so it could be pre-heated .

4.2.9. Beryllium burned with Compressed Oxygen in the Main Unit

... recalculate ..

Jan: Volume 31L Total Energy.: xxx KWH Run Time: xx Hours

This could be combined with the Run Time obtained from the Control Unit : xxx Hours

4.2.10. Diesel burned with Air in the Main Unit

The entire Main Unit is filled with Diesel Fuel with an Energy Density of 32 MJ/L.

Jan: Volume 31L Total Energy.: 3584 KWH Run Time: 287 Hours

This could be combined with the Run Time obtained from a Fuel Cell in the Control Unit : 147 Hours

4.2.11. Magnesium in the Main Unit

Does Magnesium burn in air? It DOES combine with STEAM to produce Magnesium Oxide and Hydrogen .... so the INPUT water can be used as fuel.

The weight of the Main Unit would increase, less water would go out than went in, and there would be Hydrogen in the output.

4.2.12. Other Materials in the Main Unit

One might expect that Explosives would contain a lot of energy. In fact, most of them do not. For instance, Nitroglycerine only contains 10 MJ/L, compared to Beryllium/External Air, which has 120 MJ/L. They just release their energy very quickly.

I also excluded more exotic systems, such as using molten metal as a heat reservoir, or liquid Hydrogen and Liquid Oxygen as combustibles.

4.2.13. Fakes for the January Experiment

Rossi performed an additional trial with Levi reported on Feb 18.

See http://www.lenr-canr.org/News.htm

This time they used water only (because of the problems with performing calorimetry with steam), in large quantities which could not have been sequestered.

It produced around 16KW for 18 hours.

Levi inspected EVERYTHING except the reactor itself. He says the size of the reactor was about 1 liter.

Most of the fakes above can be eliminated.

If the ENTIRE 1 liter volume is composed of the fake material :

Lithium ion battery : 0.81 hours
Diesel, external oxygen : 7.25 hours
Compressed Hydrogen, external oxygen : 0.81 hours
Beryllium, external oxygen : 28.1 hours
(I haven't set up the calculations for Beryllium with Compressed Oxygen).

Thus the only fake which cannot be conclusively eliminated is Beryllium, using external oxygen. Sealing the unit would probably eliminate even this.

4.3. FAKES by WEIGHT

At present we have no independent measurements of the weight of the various parts of the eCat.

5. Rothwell's Razor

This is a variation of (the usually misquoted) Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

... the razor is a principle that suggests we should tend towards simpler theories ... until we can trade some simplicity for increased explanatory power. Contrary to the popular summary, the simplest available theory is sometimes a less accurate explanation.

It is very tempting to propose elaborate schemes by which the eCat could be faked. For instance, in the author's physorg.com posts he suggested feeding it a brew of various isotopes of water to make sure that the SAME water goes in and comes out.

However, in the Vortex mailing list Re: [Vo]:Hidden wire hypothesis redux

Jed Rothwell suggests in response to another comment:

> This is my point, there may be a million things you haven't thought of.

Nope. That does not work. A good experiment cannot have a million possible problems. If we had to think up a million ways that an experiment might be wrong (or fake -- pretty much the same thing) then no experiment would ever prove anything, and there would be no progress.

A bad experiment can have a large number of possible errors (or ways to make it fake).

....

Flow calorimetry experiments similar to this, with boiling water or flowing water, have been done many times. The potential errors are well understood and their number is strictly limited -- unless you are aiming for the kind of precision SRI achieved.

In an experiment with only 4 main parameters -- input power, inlet temperature, outlet temperature and flow rate -- the number of potential significant errors will [be] small, and so will the number of ways deliberately fake data can be surreptitiously introduced. When the method is complicated, and the results close to the margin, with many parameters with, for example, the possibility of recombination producing a significant error, then there are many ways an error can creep in, and many ways to deliberately introduce fake data.

Complexity and a low s/n ratio invite error, misinterpretation or fraud.

For the December/January STEAM version I'd clarify that the parameters for the ORIGINAL demonstration were:
  • Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Steam composition (wet or dry?)

The following were NOT checked or controlled:

  • Steam volume (NOT checked)
  • AIR intake (NOT controlled)
For the February WATER version we need:
  • Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Water volume

The following were NOT controlled:

  • AIR intake.
For FUTURE WATER versions we need:
  • Input electrical power (BETWEEN the control panel and the reactor)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Water volume
  • Total weight before
  • Total weight after
  • Sealed unit, to prevent drawing air as a fuel.

6. Spreadsheet

Spreadsheets were used to perform these calculations. See Spreadsheets v1 (In progress).

7. Physorg Posts

These ideas were first noted in PhysOrg (posting as alanf777)

The 1,000-character posting limit made my comments rather hard to read), so I have extracted and clarified them in Physorg v1