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1. Introduction

A new "Cold Fusion" or "LENR" device -- the Rossi/Focardi Energy Catalyser or eCAT was recently demonstrated at the University of Bologna, Italy on Jan 15, 2011:

Rossi-Focardi Energy Catalyzer

Unlike the Deuterium/Palladium Pons and Fleischmann setup, this uses Hydrogen and Nickel, produces large amounts of energy (more than 10kW), and can be turned on and off on demand.

An additional experiment was performed in February, where the eCat ran for 18 hours.

This paper takes a "Devil's Advocate" position : if it's not real, how can the experiment be faked? And if it's faked, how can we detect it, or eliminate it?

And if all possible fakes are eliminated ... Sherlock Holmes' axiom applies.

2. Conclusion

Note : I'm putting the conclusion at the top for now.

Since the December/January experiments only recorded the inputs and outputs for a short time (30 minutes), almost ANY of the fakes could have produced the result.

For the February experiment Levi was allowed to inspect everything, including the 1-liter reaction chamber.

However, he did NOT record the volume of the reactor as a whole -- so we have to assume that the entire horizontal arm contained fake material.

There is at least ONE fake configuration (Boron burned in Air) which is NOT eliminated in the 18-hour February trial.

This could have run for 53 Hours.

The Rossi/Focardi eCat device has NOT been proven to be real in these experiments.

3. eCAT Demonstrator Apparatus

The basic setup is

                                              *======> steam 
                                              |        outlet
                                         *---------*
                                         |    :    |
                                         |    :    |
                                         | Vertical|
                            Main         | Arm     | 
                            Unit         |    :    |
                                         |    :    |
                           Horizontal Arm|    :    |
                           *-------------*    :    |
                           |    Reactor       :    |
                           |   * - - - - - -* :    |
                           |   :Shielding   : :    |
           *------*        |   *- - - - - - * :    |
Water  ====| pump |=======>|::>: Heat       :-*    |
           *------*        |   : Exchanger  :      |
       *--------------*    |   *- - - - - - *      |
AC:--->| Control Unit |===>|::>: Resistors  :      |
       *--------------*    |   *- - - - - --*      |
            *------*       |   : Chamber    :      |
Compressed  | H    |======>|::>: Ni/H       :      |
Hydrogen    |      |       |   *- - - - - - *      |
            *------*       |                       |
            ^^^^^^^^       *-----------------------*
            scale            ||                || metal legs
                        *============================* 
                                 board
The components are:

The entire Horizontal and Vertical arms were enveloped in tinfoil for the December/January trials.

The presence or absence of any evidence of nuclear activity is NOT considered in this paper.

Operation:

4. Equipment Sections

4.1. Control Box

The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 60 litres.
Levi looked inside the control box in February

Section Abrev Mass Volume
Control BoxCtrl-60.000

4.2. Horizontal Arm

The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 22 litres.
Levi reported in February that much of the volume is insulation.

He gives the volume of the Reactor CHAMBER, but not the value of the REACTOR as a whole.

Section Abrev Mass Volume
Horizontal ArmHorz-22.000

4.3. Vertical Arm

The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 9 litres.
Levi reported in February that there are no hidden components.

Section Abrev Mass Volume
Vertical ArmVert- 9.000

4.4. Reactor

The weight is unknown.

Levi reported in February that the volume of the Reactor CHAMBER, but not the value of the REACTOR as a whole.

Section Abrev Mass Volume
ReactorReact- 1.000

5. Methodology for FAKE eCATS and their Detection

The general methodology for Batteries and Chemicals is:

  • Choose some kind of FAKE (eg batteries)
  • Presume that the ENTIRE unknown structure is made up of the Fake material.
  • Make NO allowances for implementation efficiency.
  • Use the energy density (by weight or by volume) to determine the MAXIMUM energy content of the fake.
  • Using the observed excess POWER (kW) of the system, determine how long you would have to run it to exhaust the energy.
  • If that time is LESS than the observed run time, then the FAKE is eliminated.

Some kinds of fake could also be detected by analyzing the output:

  • Analyze the chemical composition of the output, to make sure no 'combustion' products are hidden
  • Make sure that all the water which goes IN goes OUT
  • Weigh the device before and after, to see whether chemicals have been consumed, or combustion products stored

... but see Rothwell's Razor, below.

Rothwell argues that some kinds of fakes would have been NOTICED by the observers (For example, if Diesel fuel were burned, there would be copious fumes). However, this paper takes an extremely conservative position:

This paper draws the distinction between "not NOTICED" and "tested and NOT FOUND".

Anything which is not TESTED must be ruled in favor of the FAKE.

If both the Volume AND the weight are known, then calculate the maximum run time for both, and use the LOWER number.

If all possible fakes are eliminated then the eCat must be real -- even though we do not know how it works. If current nuclearphysics can't explain it, then the physics is wrong.

6. Batteries and Chemicals

This section describes various techniques and materials which could be possibly used to construct a fake.

The materials are selected from Wikipedia Energy Density
(Unfortunately not all entries give the Energy by volume AND by weight.)

The materials selected represent the highest efficiency for any class.

These all have the characteristic that they contain a fixed amount of energy, and can therefor only run for a limited time. A fake made from batteries or chemicals simply has to be run for long enough to exhaust the material.

Batteries could be contained in the Control Box, and in the Main Unit..

Note: values of '-' mean the result is not available, values of '???' mean that I haven't fed them in yet.

6.1. Lithium Ion Batteries

Lithium-Ion batteries are listed as the most efficient by volume.

(Lead-Acid batteries are listed for comparison.)

Material Abrev Energy
by
Mass
Energy
by
Volume
Specific
Heat
Lead-Acid BatteriesLead B 0.140 0.360-
Lithium-Ion BatteriesL-i B 0.720 3.600-

Lithium-Sodium batteries are listed as a higher Energy Density by Mass -- but the volume is not given.

6.2. Hydrogen Fuel Cell

This method uses a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, which could deliver electric power from the Control Box to the Main Unit.

It could use compressed or liquid Hydrogen, in conjunction with external air, compressed Oxygen or liquid oxygen.

Material Abrev Energy
by
Mass
Energy
by
Volume
Specific
Heat
Compressed Hydrogen/External Air Fuel CellHA-FC143.000 5.600-
Liquid Hydrogen/External Air Fuel CellLHA-FC143.00010.100-
Compressed Hydrogen/Compressed Oxygen Fuel CellHO-FC??????-
Liquid Hydrogen/Liquid Oxygen Fuel CellLHO-FC??????-

Comments : the by-product is water, which could be vented, or, if burned with oxygen, condensed and stored.

6.3. Hydrogen burned with Air or Oxygen

THis could be used in the main unit only.

This method burns compressed or liquid Hydrogen with external air, compressed Oxygen or Liquid Oxygen

Material Abrev Energy
by
Mass
Energy
by
Volume
Specific
Heat
Compressed Hydrogen/External AirHA143.000 5.600-
Liquid Hydrogen/External AirLHA143.00010.100-
Compressed Hydrogen/Compressed OxygenHO??????-
Liquid Hydrogen/Liquid OxygenLHO??????-

Comments : the by-product is water, which could be vented into the outlet, or, if burned with oxygen, condensed and stored.

6.4. Boron Burned with Air or Oxygen

This method burns Boron, burned with external air, compressed Oxygen or Liquid Oxygen, forming solid Boron Trioxide, which can remain in the unit.

Material Abrev Energy
by
Mass
Energy
by
Volume
Specific
Heat
Boron/External AirBo/A58.900137.800-
Boron/Compressed OxygenBo/O??????-
Boron/Liquid OxygenBo/LO??????-

Note : the Wiki Energy density link goes to a partisan web site Boron: A Better Energy Carrier than Hydrogen?

The energy density needs to be confirmed.

6.5. Diesel burned with Air

Material Abrev Energy
by
Mass
Energy
by
Volume
Specific
Heat
Diesel/AirDsl/A46.20037.300-

The Wiki Energy density table indicates that diesel has a slightly higher energy content than gasoline.

Diesel or Gasoline would produce large quantities of fumes, which would be very hard to hide from observers. It might be possible to vent it into the steam outlet.

6.6. Magnesium and Steam

Does Magnesium burn in air? It DOES combine with STEAM to produce Magnesium Oxide and Hydrogen .... so the INPUT water can be used as fuel.

The weight of the Main Unit would increase, less water would go out than went in, and there would be Hydrogen in the output.

6.7. Other Materials

One might expect that Explosives would contain a lot of energy. In fact, most of them do not. For instance, Nitroglycerine only contains 10 MJ/L, compared to Beryllium/External Air, which has 120 MJ/L. They just release their energy very quickly.

7. Other Fixed-Energy Methods

7.1. Pre-loaded Heat Sink

Proposed By : ....

The entire volume is composed of a material with high specific heat.

See Heat capacity, which has an entry for Volumetric Heat Capacity J·cm−3·K−1

Material Specific
Heat
Maximum
Temperature
Comments
Water 4.21 100 boils
Beryllium 3.38   melts? Poisonous
Iron 3.53   melts?

Note that the heat capacity might also explain "heat after death", when the output power continues after the inputs are turned off.

This fake must be entirely contained in the main body of the apparatus.

One would have to allow for molten metal, though this would be hard to contain.

... calculation to follow ...

7.2. Input Water Diversion

Proposed by : Rothwell?

The water which is pumped INTO the system is NOT all sent into the heat exchanger, but some is diverted into storage.

For example, if the observed output power is 10 times the input power, and only 1/10 the water is converted to steam then the apparent output will be FAKE. It can run until the diverted 9/10 of the water fills the reservoir.

As an UPPER limit, presume that the ENTIRE flow is diverted.

Maximum run time = volume / flow_rate

  Sections Volume
(liters)
Flow
(liters/hr)
Time
to
Fill (Hrs)
Jan H and V 31.00 17.50 1.77
Feb H 22.00 3000.00 0.01

8. Unlimited-Energy Methods

These have the characteristic that they can run for an unlimited time. Instead of calculating how long they could run, one has to calculate how much is needed to produce the observed power.

8.1. Hidden Wires

... to follow ... Load table of Amperage vs Wire Gauge ...

These can only be eliminated by inspecting the apparatus.

8.2. Nuclear

8.2.1. Plutonium 238

One gram of Plutonium 238 generates approximately 0.5 watts of power.

Material Abrev Power
by
Mass
kW/kg
Power
by
Volume
kW/L
Specific
gravity
Plutonium 238Pu238 0.500 0.000 0.000

To produce 10 kW of power one would need 5.00 kg of Pu 238.

Since 1993, all of the plutonium-238 the U.S. has used in space probes has been purchased from Russia. 16.5 kilograms in total have been purchased.

For the proposed 1 MW unit, one needs 500.00 kg -- more than was acquired by NASA.

Note : the Wiki Energy Density value is very high : it is probably the total energy emitted until the Plutonium is effectively depleted.

8.2.2. Haffnium 178 Isomer

This is listed in the wiki Energy Density table ... but it is not clear if it could be used in this context.

Material Abrev Power
by
Mass
kW/kg
Power
by
Volume
kW/L
Specific
gravity
Haffnium 178Hf178999.000 0.000 0.000

9. Experiments

9.1. January Experiment

In December 2010 a team of scientists was allowed to examine the device, and performed a number of experiments.

In January a "press" demonstration was held -- though the reactor developed an internal problem (reportedly on the leads to an internal heating resistor), took a long time to "ignite", and ran at lower efficiency (higher inout power).

These two will be referred to as the "January" apparatus and experiment.

The things we know about the January apparatus as a whole are:

The things we do NOT know about the January apparatus include:

ASSUMING that ALL the water was converted to steam the total OUTPUT energy was computed:

Given the rate of flow, the output power (kW) was calculated, and the INPUT power (kW) to the controller was subtracted.
The total excess energy (kWH) was computed from the Power (kW) times the runtime (H).

The volume of the various elements were estimated by Mauro Villa to be:

[ These could be conformed from photographs.]

The measured values are:

9.2. February Experiment

The February trial reportedly had the same general structure, except that is was only used to HEAT water, not to convert it to steam.

The (sole?) observer of the February run, Prof Levi, was allowed to examine everything INCLUDING inside the cental cavity of the reactor, which he estimated to be about 1 liter in volume. He reported that a lot of the volume of the horizontal and vertical arms was insulation, and that lead shielding was visible around the reactor chamber.

Cold Fusion: 18 hour test excludes combustion

The things we know about the February apparatus as a whole are:

The things we do NOT know about the February apparatus include:

The measured values are:

Note: Since all of the system was visible except the central reactor, and a high rate of flow was used, we can reasonably assume that ALL the water was sent through the system.

10. FAKES by VOLUME

10.1. Lithium Ion Batteries

  Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power

Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
All Secs Li/i Ctrl
L-i B

60.00
Horz
L-i B

22.00
Vert
L-i B

9.00
10.00

91.00
FAKE?
0.50

9.10
January
All Secs Li/i Ctrl
L-i B

60.00
Horz
L-i B

22.00
Vert
L-i B

9.00
16.00

91.00
REAL
18.00

5.69
February
React Sec Li/i Ctrl
-

0.00
Horz
L-i B

22.00
Vert
-

0.00
16.00

22.00
REAL
18.00

1.38
February

10.2. Liquid Hydrogen

Controller contains a Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Hydrogen.

Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.

  Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power

Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
LHA

61.72
Vert
LHA

25.25
10.00

255.31
FAKE?
0.50

25.53
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
LHA

61.72
Vert
LHA

25.25
16.00

255.31
REAL
18.00

15.96
February
React H/Air Ctrl
-

0.00
Horz
LHA

61.72
Vert
-

0.00
16.00

61.72
REAL
18.00

3.86
February

10.3. Diesel Fuel

Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Diesel.

Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.

  Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power

Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
Dsl/A

227.95
Vert
Dsl/A

93.25
10.00

489.53
FAKE?
0.50

48.95
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
Dsl/A

227.95
Vert
Dsl/A

93.25
16.00

489.53
FAKE?
18.00

30.60
February
React Diesel/Air Ctrl
-

0.00
Horz
Dsl/A

227.95
Vert
-

0.00
16.00

227.95
REAL
18.00

14.25
February

10.4. Boron

Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell (Liquid Hydrogen/Air), Main unit burns Boron in Air.

  Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power

Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
Bo/A

842.12
Vert
Bo/A

344.50
10.00

1354.96
FAKE?
0.50

135.50
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air Ctrl
LHA-FC

168.33
Horz
Bo/A

842.12
Vert
Bo/A

344.50
16.00

1354.96
FAKE?
18.00

84.68
February
React Boron/Air Ctrl
-

0.00
Horz
Bo/A

842.12
Vert
-

0.00
16.00

842.12
FAKE?
18.00

52.63
February

11. FAKES by WEIGHT

At present we have no independent measurements of the weight of the various parts of the eCat.

12. Rothwell's Razor

This is a variation of (the usually misquoted) Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

... the razor is a principle that suggests we should tend towards simpler theories ... until we can trade some simplicity for increased explanatory power. Contrary to the popular summary, the simplest available theory is sometimes a less accurate explanation.

It is very tempting to propose elaborate schemes by which the eCat could be faked. For instance, in the author's physorg.com posts he suggested feeding it a brew of various isotopes of water to make sure that the SAME water goes in and comes out.

However, in the Vortex mailing list Re: [Vo]:Hidden wire hypothesis redux

Jed Rothwell suggests in response to another comment:

This is my point, there may be a million things you haven't thought of.

Nope. That does not work. A good experiment cannot have a million possible problems. If we had to think up a million ways that an experiment might be wrong (or fake -- pretty much the same thing) then no experiment would ever prove anything, and there would be no progress.

A bad experiment can have a large number of possible errors (or ways to make it fake).

....

Flow calorimetry experiments similar to this, with boiling water or flowing water, have been done many times. The potential errors are well understood and their number is strictly limited -- unless you are aiming for the kind of precision SRI achieved.

In an experiment with only 4 main parameters -- input power, inlet temperature, outlet temperature and flow rate -- the number of potential significant errors will [be] small, and so will the number of ways deliberately fake data can be surreptitiously introduced. When the method is complicated, and the results close to the margin, with many parameters with, for example, the possibility of recombination producing a significant error, then there are many ways an error can creep in, and many ways to deliberately introduce fake data.

Complexity and a low s/n ratio invite error, misinterpretation or fraud.

13. Discussion

Note : some of this section needs to be merged with the experiment sections, above.

For the December/January STEAM version I'll clarify that the parameters for the ORIGINAL demonstration were:

  • Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Steam composition (wet or dry?)

The following were NOT checked or controlled:

  • Steam volume (NOT checked)
  • AIR intake (NOT controlled)
For the February WATER version we need:
  • Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Water volume

The following were NOT controlled:

  • AIR intake.
For FUTURE WATER versions we need:
  • Input electrical power (BETWEEN the control panel and the reactor)
  • Input hydrogen (by weight)
  • Inlet temperature
  • Outlet temperature
  • Water volume
  • Total weight before
  • Total weight after
  • Sealed unit, to prevent drawing air as a fuel.

As much as possible of the unit should be open to inspection to reduce the vlolumes (or weights) in which fake material could be hidden, and thus shorten the time needed to eliminate fakes.

14. Calculations

All calculations in this document are performed with the PHP programming language which generates the document.

15. Physorg Posts

These ideas were first noted in PhysOrg (posting as alanf777)

The 1,000-character posting limit made my comments rather hard to read), so I have extracted and clarified them in Physorg v1