This document has been updated : please check for the latest version at lenr.qumbu.com
1. Introduction
A new "Cold Fusion" or "LENR" device -- the Rossi/Focardi Energy Catalyser or eCAT was recently demonstrated at the University of Bologna, Italy on Jan 15, 2011:
Rossi-Focardi Energy CatalyzerUnlike the Deuterium/Palladium Pons and Fleischmann setup, this uses Hydrogen and Nickel, produces large amounts of energy (more than 10kW), and can be turned on and off on demand.
An additional experiment was performed in February, where the eCat ran for 18 hours.
This paper takes a "Devil's Advocate" position : if it's not real, how can the experiment be faked? And if it's faked, how can we detect it, or eliminate it?
And if all possible fakes are eliminated ... Sherlock Holmes' axiom applies.
2. Conclusion
Note : I'm putting the conclusion at the top for now.
Since the December/January experiments only recorded the inputs and outputs for a short time (30 minutes), almost ANY of the fakes could have produced the result.
For the February experiment Levi was allowed to inspect everything, including the 1-liter reaction chamber.
However, he did NOT record the volume of the reactor as a whole -- so we have to assume that the entire horizontal arm contained fake material.
There is at least ONE fake configuration (Boron burned in Air) which is NOT eliminated in the 18-hour February trial.
This could have run for 53 Hours.
The Rossi/Focardi eCat device has NOT been proven to be real in these experiments.
3. eCAT Demonstrator Apparatus
The basic setup is
*======> steam
| outlet
*---------*
| : |
| : |
| Vertical|
Main | Arm |
Unit | : |
| : |
Horizontal Arm| : |
*-------------* : |
| Reactor : |
| * - - - - - -* : |
| :Shielding : : |
*------* | *- - - - - - * : |
Water ====| pump |=======>|::>: Heat :-* |
*------* | : Exchanger : |
*--------------* | *- - - - - - * |
AC:--->| Control Unit |===>|::>: Resistors : |
*--------------* | *- - - - - --* |
*------* | : Chamber : |
Compressed | H |======>|::>: Ni/H : |
Hydrogen | | | *- - - - - - * |
*------* | |
^^^^^^^^ *-----------------------*
scale || || metal legs
*============================*
board
The components are:
- Main Unit (Made up of a Horizontal and Vertical Arm)
- Horizontal Arm : Contains the Reactor Unit, reportedly made up of:
- Chamber -- contains Nickel, fed with Hydrogen
- Resistors -- used to "ignite" the reactor, then lowered to maintain the reaction
- Heat exchanger -- heats and/or boils the water.
- Radiation Shielding -- Lead
- Vertical Arm
- Water and Pump
- Control Unit powered from a wall-plug.
- Compressed Hydrogen bottle, weighed before and after.
The entire Horizontal and Vertical arms were enveloped in tinfoil for the December/January trials.
The presence or absence of any evidence of nuclear activity is NOT considered in this paper.
Operation:
- Load the reactor with hydrogen
- Apply 1 kW through the control panel until the reactor "ignites"
- Reduce the input power to 400 W (Jan)
- Pump water in at a measured rate and temperature
- Observe steam output, measure temperature and (January) dryness
- Accurately measure the weight of the hydrogen bottle, before and after
4. Equipment Sections
4.1. Control Box
The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 60 litres.
Levi looked inside the control box in February
| Section | Abrev | Mass | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control Box | Ctrl | - | 60.000 |
4.2. Horizontal Arm
The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 22 litres.
Levi reported in February that much of the volume is insulation.
He gives the volume of the Reactor CHAMBER, but not the value of the REACTOR as a whole.
| Section | Abrev | Mass | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizontal Arm | Horz | - | 22.000 |
4.3. Vertical Arm
The weight is unknown.
Villa reported the volume as 9 litres.
Levi reported in February that there are no hidden components.
| Section | Abrev | Mass | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Arm | Vert | - | 9.000 |
4.4. Reactor
The weight is unknown.
Levi reported in February that the volume of the Reactor CHAMBER, but not the value of the REACTOR as a whole.
| Section | Abrev | Mass | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reactor | React | - | 1.000 |
5. Methodology for FAKE eCATS and their Detection
The general methodology for Batteries and Chemicals is:
- Choose some kind of FAKE (eg batteries)
- Presume that the ENTIRE unknown structure is made up of the Fake material.
- Make NO allowances for implementation efficiency.
- Use the energy density (by weight or by volume) to determine the MAXIMUM energy content of the fake.
- Using the observed excess POWER (kW) of the system, determine how long you would have to run it to exhaust the energy.
- If that time is LESS than the observed run time, then the FAKE is eliminated.
Some kinds of fake could also be detected by analyzing the output:
- Analyze the chemical composition of the output, to make sure no 'combustion' products are hidden
- Make sure that all the water which goes IN goes OUT
- Weigh the device before and after, to see whether chemicals have been consumed, or combustion products stored
... but see Rothwell's Razor, below.
Rothwell argues that some kinds of fakes would have been NOTICED by the observers (For example, if Diesel fuel were burned, there would be copious fumes). However, this paper takes an extremely conservative position:
This paper draws the distinction between "not NOTICED" and "tested and NOT FOUND".
Anything which is not TESTED must be ruled in favor of the FAKE.
If both the Volume AND the weight are known, then calculate the maximum run time for both, and use the LOWER number.
If all possible fakes are eliminated then the eCat must be real -- even though we do not know how it works. If current nuclearphysics can't explain it, then the physics is wrong.
6. Batteries and Chemicals
This section describes various techniques and materials which could be possibly used to construct a fake.
The materials are selected from Wikipedia Energy Density
(Unfortunately not all entries give the Energy by volume AND by weight.)
The materials selected represent the highest efficiency for any class.
These all have the characteristic that they contain a fixed amount of energy, and can therefor only run for a limited time. A fake made from batteries or chemicals simply has to be run for long enough to exhaust the material.
Batteries could be contained in the Control Box, and in the Main Unit..
Note: values of '-' mean the result is not available, values of '???' mean that I haven't fed them in yet.6.1. Lithium Ion Batteries
Lithium-Ion batteries are listed as the most efficient by volume.
(Lead-Acid batteries are listed for comparison.)
| Material | Abrev | Energy by Mass |
Energy by Volume |
Specific Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lead-Acid Batteries | Lead B | 0.140 | 0.360 | - |
| Lithium-Ion Batteries | L-i B | 0.720 | 3.600 | - |
Lithium-Sodium batteries are listed as a higher Energy Density by Mass -- but the volume is not given.
6.2. Hydrogen Fuel Cell
This method uses a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, which could deliver electric power from the Control Box to the Main Unit.
It could use compressed or liquid Hydrogen, in conjunction with external air, compressed Oxygen or liquid oxygen.
| Material | Abrev | Energy by Mass |
Energy by Volume |
Specific Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compressed Hydrogen/External Air Fuel Cell | HA-FC | 143.000 | 5.600 | - |
| Liquid Hydrogen/External Air Fuel Cell | LHA-FC | 143.000 | 10.100 | - |
| Compressed Hydrogen/Compressed Oxygen Fuel Cell | HO-FC | ??? | ??? | - |
| Liquid Hydrogen/Liquid Oxygen Fuel Cell | LHO-FC | ??? | ??? | - |
Comments : the by-product is water, which could be vented, or, if burned with oxygen, condensed and stored.
6.3. Hydrogen burned with Air or Oxygen
THis could be used in the main unit only.
This method burns compressed or liquid Hydrogen with external air, compressed Oxygen or Liquid Oxygen
| Material | Abrev | Energy by Mass |
Energy by Volume |
Specific Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compressed Hydrogen/External Air | HA | 143.000 | 5.600 | - |
| Liquid Hydrogen/External Air | LHA | 143.000 | 10.100 | - |
| Compressed Hydrogen/Compressed Oxygen | HO | ??? | ??? | - |
| Liquid Hydrogen/Liquid Oxygen | LHO | ??? | ??? | - |
Comments : the by-product is water, which could be vented into the outlet, or, if burned with oxygen, condensed and stored.
6.4. Boron Burned with Air or Oxygen
This method burns Boron, burned with external air, compressed Oxygen or Liquid Oxygen, forming solid Boron Trioxide, which can remain in the unit.
| Material | Abrev | Energy by Mass |
Energy by Volume |
Specific Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boron/External Air | Bo/A | 58.900 | 137.800 | - |
| Boron/Compressed Oxygen | Bo/O | ??? | ??? | - |
| Boron/Liquid Oxygen | Bo/LO | ??? | ??? | - |
Note : the Wiki Energy density link goes to a partisan web site Boron: A Better Energy Carrier than Hydrogen?
The energy density needs to be confirmed.
6.5. Diesel burned with Air
| Material | Abrev | Energy by Mass |
Energy by Volume |
Specific Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel/Air | Dsl/A | 46.200 | 37.300 | - |
The Wiki Energy density table indicates that diesel has a slightly higher energy content than gasoline.
Diesel or Gasoline would produce large quantities of fumes, which would be very hard to hide from observers. It might be possible to vent it into the steam outlet.
6.6. Magnesium and Steam
Does Magnesium burn in air? It DOES combine with STEAM to produce Magnesium Oxide and Hydrogen .... so the INPUT water can be used as fuel.
The weight of the Main Unit would increase, less water would go out than went in, and there would be Hydrogen in the output.
6.7. Other Materials
One might expect that Explosives would contain a lot of energy. In fact, most of them do not. For instance, Nitroglycerine only contains 10 MJ/L, compared to Beryllium/External Air, which has 120 MJ/L. They just release their energy very quickly.
7. Other Fixed-Energy Methods
7.1. Pre-loaded Heat Sink
Proposed By : ....
The entire volume is composed of a material with high specific heat.
See Heat capacity, which has an entry for Volumetric Heat Capacity J·cm−3·K−1
| Material | Specific Heat |
Maximum Temperature |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water | 4.21 | 100 | boils |
| Beryllium | 3.38 | melts? Poisonous | |
| Iron | 3.53 | melts? |
Note that the heat capacity might also explain "heat after death", when the output power continues after the inputs are turned off.
This fake must be entirely contained in the main body of the apparatus.
One would have to allow for molten metal, though this would be hard to contain.
... calculation to follow ...
7.2. Input Water Diversion
Proposed by : Rothwell?
The water which is pumped INTO the system is NOT all sent into the heat exchanger, but some is diverted into storage.
For example, if the observed output power is 10 times the input power, and only 1/10 the water is converted to steam then the apparent output will be FAKE. It can run until the diverted 9/10 of the water fills the reservoir.
As an UPPER limit, presume that the ENTIRE flow is diverted.
Maximum run time = volume / flow_rate
| Sections | Volume (liters) |
Flow (liters/hr) |
Time to Fill (Hrs) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | H and V | 31.00 | 17.50 | 1.77 |
| Feb | H | 22.00 | 3000.00 | 0.01 |
8. Unlimited-Energy Methods
These have the characteristic that they can run for an unlimited time. Instead of calculating how long they could run, one has to calculate how much is needed to produce the observed power.8.1. Hidden Wires
... to follow ... Load table of Amperage vs Wire Gauge ...
These can only be eliminated by inspecting the apparatus.
8.2. Nuclear
8.2.1. Plutonium 238
One gram of Plutonium 238 generates approximately 0.5 watts of power.
| Material | Abrev | Power by Mass kW/kg |
Power by Volume kW/L |
Specific gravity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plutonium 238 | Pu238 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
To produce 10 kW of power one would need 5.00 kg of Pu 238.
Since 1993, all of the plutonium-238 the U.S. has used in space probes has been purchased from Russia. 16.5 kilograms in total have been purchased.
For the proposed 1 MW unit, one needs 500.00 kg -- more than was acquired by NASA.
Note : the Wiki Energy Density value is very high : it is probably the total energy emitted until the Plutonium is effectively depleted.
8.2.2. Haffnium 178 Isomer
| Material | Abrev | Power by Mass kW/kg |
Power by Volume kW/L |
Specific gravity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haffnium 178 | Hf178 | 999.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
9. Experiments
9.1. January Experiment
In December 2010 a team of scientists was allowed to examine the device, and performed a number of experiments.
In January a "press" demonstration was held -- though the reactor developed an internal problem (reportedly on the leads to an internal heating resistor), took a long time to "ignite", and ran at lower efficiency (higher inout power).
These two will be referred to as the "January" apparatus and experiment.
The things we know about the January apparatus as a whole are:
- The input power to the controller
- The input water volume and temperature
- The output steam temperature and dryness
- The amount of hydrogen used
- ESTIMATED volumes of the various elements
(These could be confirmed from the photographs).
The things we do NOT know about the January apparatus include:
- The contents of the controller
- The power from the controller to the main unit
- The output steam volume
- The weights before and after, other than the hydrogen bottle
- Whether any air was taken in by the device, or combustion products released.
ASSUMING that ALL the water was converted to steam the total OUTPUT energy was computed:
- Heat water to boiling point
- Convert to steam
- Heat the steam
Given the rate of flow, the output power (kW) was calculated, and the INPUT power (kW) to the controller was subtracted.
The total excess energy (kWH) was computed from the Power (kW) times the runtime (H).
The volume of the various elements were estimated by Mauro Villa to be:
- Control Box 60 litres
- Horizontal Arm 22 litres
- Vertical Arm 9 litres
[ These could be conformed from photographs.]
The measured values are:
- Flow Rate: 17.5 L/Hr (292 ml/min)
- Input Power : 400W
- Excess Power 12.5 kWH
- Factor 12.5/0.4 = 31
- Duration: 1 hour, of which 30 minutes was steam-producing
- Hydrogen: less than 0.1 g of hydrogen was consumed.
If the hydrogen had been burned it would have produced less than 14.3 kJ (xxx to follow)
9.2. February Experiment
The February trial reportedly had the same general structure, except that is was only used to HEAT water, not to convert it to steam.
The (sole?) observer of the February run, Prof Levi, was allowed to examine everything INCLUDING inside the cental cavity of the reactor, which he estimated to be about 1 liter in volume. He reported that a lot of the volume of the horizontal and vertical arms was insulation, and that lead shielding was visible around the reactor chamber.
Cold Fusion: 18 hour test excludes combustion
The things we know about the February apparatus as a whole are:
- The Control Unit and all parts of the Main Unit including the reactor were inspected.
- The input power to the controller
- The input water volume and temperature
- The output water temperature
- The amount of hydrogen used (Less than 0.4g), producing XX kWH is burned.
- ESTIMATED volume of the reactor chamber
- Very little water could be stored (see note)
The things we do NOT know about the February apparatus include:
- The power from the controller to the main unit
- The weights before and after, other than the hydrogen bottle
- Whether any air was taken in by the device, or combustion products released.
The measured values are:
- Flow Rate: 17.5 L/Hr (292 ml/min)
- Input Power : 80W
- Excess Power 16 kW
- Factor 16/0.08 = 200
- Run Time: 18 hours
- Hydrogen: less than 0.4 g of hydrogen was consumed.
If the hydrogen had been burned it would have produced less than xxx kJ (xxx to follow)
Note: Since all of the system was visible except the central reactor, and a high rate of flow was used, we can reasonably assume that ALL the water was sent through the system.
10. FAKES by VOLUME
10.1. Lithium Ion Batteries
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
All Secs Li/i
Ctrl
L-i B
60.00
Horz
L-i B
22.00
Vert
L-i B
9.00
10.00
91.00
FAKE?
0.50
9.10
January
All Secs Li/i
Ctrl
L-i B
60.00
Horz
L-i B
22.00
Vert
L-i B
9.00
16.00
91.00
REAL
18.00
5.69
February
React Sec Li/i
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
L-i B
22.00
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
22.00
REAL
18.00
1.38
February
10.2. Liquid Hydrogen
Controller contains a Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Hydrogen.
Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
LHA
61.72
Vert
LHA
25.25
10.00
255.31
FAKE?
0.50
25.53
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
LHA
61.72
Vert
LHA
25.25
16.00
255.31
REAL
18.00
15.96
February
React H/Air
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
LHA
61.72
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
61.72
REAL
18.00
3.86
February
10.3. Diesel Fuel
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Diesel.
Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
Dsl/A
93.25
10.00
489.53
FAKE?
0.50
48.95
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
Dsl/A
93.25
16.00
489.53
FAKE?
18.00
30.60
February
React Diesel/Air
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
227.95
REAL
18.00
14.25
February
10.4. Boron
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell (Liquid Hydrogen/Air), Main unit burns Boron in Air.
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
Bo/A
344.50
10.00
1354.96
FAKE?
0.50
135.50
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
Bo/A
344.50
16.00
1354.96
FAKE?
18.00
84.68
February
React Boron/Air
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
842.12
FAKE?
18.00
52.63
February
11. FAKES by WEIGHT
At present we have no independent measurements of the weight of the various parts of the eCat.
12. Rothwell's Razor
This is a variation of (the usually misquoted)
Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
... the razor is a principle that suggests we should tend towards simpler theories ... until we can trade some simplicity for increased explanatory power. Contrary to the popular summary, the simplest available theory is sometimes a less accurate explanation.
| Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Actual Power Fake Energy |
Actual Time Fake Time |
Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Secs Li/i | Ctrl L-i B 60.00 |
Horz L-i B 22.00 |
Vert L-i B 9.00 |
10.00 91.00 |
FAKE? 0.50 9.10 |
January |
| All Secs Li/i | Ctrl L-i B 60.00 |
Horz L-i B 22.00 |
Vert L-i B 9.00 |
16.00 91.00 |
REAL 18.00 5.69 |
February |
| React Sec Li/i | Ctrl - 0.00 |
Horz L-i B 22.00 |
Vert - 0.00 |
16.00 22.00 |
REAL 18.00 1.38 |
February |
Controller contains a Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Hydrogen.
Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.
| Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Actual Power Fake Energy |
Actual Time Fake Time |
Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz LHA 61.72 |
Vert LHA 25.25 |
10.00 255.31 |
FAKE? 0.50 25.53 |
January |
| H/Air Fuel Cell, H/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz LHA 61.72 |
Vert LHA 25.25 |
16.00 255.31 |
REAL 18.00 15.96 |
February |
| React H/Air | Ctrl - 0.00 |
Horz LHA 61.72 |
Vert - 0.00 |
16.00 61.72 |
REAL 18.00 3.86 |
February |
10.3. Diesel Fuel
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Diesel.
Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
Dsl/A
93.25
10.00
489.53
FAKE?
0.50
48.95
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
Dsl/A
93.25
16.00
489.53
FAKE?
18.00
30.60
February
React Diesel/Air
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
Dsl/A
227.95
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
227.95
REAL
18.00
14.25
February
10.4. Boron
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell (Liquid Hydrogen/Air), Main unit burns Boron in Air.
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Section
Material
Energy
Actual Power
Fake Energy
Actual
Time
Fake
Time
Comments
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
Bo/A
344.50
10.00
1354.96
FAKE?
0.50
135.50
January
H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air
Ctrl
LHA-FC
168.33
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
Bo/A
344.50
16.00
1354.96
FAKE?
18.00
84.68
February
React Boron/Air
Ctrl
-
0.00
Horz
Bo/A
842.12
Vert
-
0.00
16.00
842.12
FAKE?
18.00
52.63
February
11. FAKES by WEIGHT
At present we have no independent measurements of the weight of the various parts of the eCat.
12. Rothwell's Razor
This is a variation of (the usually misquoted)
Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
... the razor is a principle that suggests we should tend towards simpler theories ... until we can trade some simplicity for increased explanatory power. Contrary to the popular summary, the simplest available theory is sometimes a less accurate explanation.
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell, Main unit burns Diesel.
Liquid Hydrogen and Air are the most favorable for a fake.
| Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Actual Power Fake Energy |
Actual Time Fake Time |
Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz Dsl/A 227.95 |
Vert Dsl/A 93.25 |
10.00 489.53 |
FAKE? 0.50 48.95 |
January |
| H/Air Fuel Cell, Diesel/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz Dsl/A 227.95 |
Vert Dsl/A 93.25 |
16.00 489.53 |
FAKE? 18.00 30.60 |
February |
| React Diesel/Air | Ctrl - 0.00 |
Horz Dsl/A 227.95 |
Vert - 0.00 |
16.00 227.95 |
REAL 18.00 14.25 |
February |
Controller contains a Hydrogen Fuel Cell (Liquid Hydrogen/Air), Main unit burns Boron in Air.
| Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Section Material Energy |
Actual Power Fake Energy |
Actual Time Fake Time |
Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz Bo/A 842.12 |
Vert Bo/A 344.50 |
10.00 1354.96 |
FAKE? 0.50 135.50 |
January |
| H/Air Fuel Cell, Boron/Air | Ctrl LHA-FC 168.33 |
Horz Bo/A 842.12 |
Vert Bo/A 344.50 |
16.00 1354.96 |
FAKE? 18.00 84.68 |
February |
| React Boron/Air | Ctrl - 0.00 |
Horz Bo/A 842.12 |
Vert - 0.00 |
16.00 842.12 |
FAKE? 18.00 52.63 |
February |
11. FAKES by WEIGHT
12. Rothwell's Razor
This is a variation of (the usually misquoted) Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia... the razor is a principle that suggests we should tend towards simpler theories ... until we can trade some simplicity for increased explanatory power. Contrary to the popular summary, the simplest available theory is sometimes a less accurate explanation.
It is very tempting to propose elaborate schemes by which the eCat could be faked. For instance, in the author's physorg.com posts he suggested feeding it a brew of various isotopes of water to make sure that the SAME water goes in and comes out.
However, in the Vortex mailing list Re: [Vo]:Hidden wire hypothesis redux
Jed Rothwell suggests in response to another comment:
This is my point, there may be a million things you haven't thought of.
Nope. That does not work. A good experiment cannot have a million possible problems. If we had to think up a million ways that an experiment might be wrong (or fake -- pretty much the same thing) then no experiment would ever prove anything, and there would be no progress.
A bad experiment can have a large number of possible errors (or ways to make it fake).
....
Flow calorimetry experiments similar to this, with boiling water or flowing water, have been done many times. The potential errors are well understood and their number is strictly limited -- unless you are aiming for the kind of precision SRI achieved.
In an experiment with only 4 main parameters -- input power, inlet temperature, outlet temperature and flow rate -- the number of potential significant errors will [be] small, and so will the number of ways deliberately fake data can be surreptitiously introduced. When the method is complicated, and the results close to the margin, with many parameters with, for example, the possibility of recombination producing a significant error, then there are many ways an error can creep in, and many ways to deliberately introduce fake data.
Complexity and a low s/n ratio invite error, misinterpretation or fraud.
13. Discussion
Note : some of this section needs to be merged with the experiment sections, above.
For the December/January STEAM version I'll clarify that the parameters for the ORIGINAL demonstration were:
- Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
- Input hydrogen (by weight)
- Inlet temperature
- Outlet temperature
- Steam composition (wet or dry?)
The following were NOT checked or controlled:
- Steam volume (NOT checked)
- AIR intake (NOT controlled)
- Input electrical power (INTO the control panel)
- Input hydrogen (by weight)
- Inlet temperature
- Outlet temperature
- Water volume
The following were NOT controlled:
- AIR intake.
- Input electrical power (BETWEEN the control panel and the reactor)
- Input hydrogen (by weight)
- Inlet temperature
- Outlet temperature
- Water volume
- Total weight before
- Total weight after
- Sealed unit, to prevent drawing air as a fuel.
As much as possible of the unit should be open to inspection to reduce the vlolumes (or weights) in which fake material could be hidden, and thus shorten the time needed to eliminate fakes.
14. Calculations
All calculations in this document are performed with the PHP programming language which generates the document.
15. Physorg Posts
These ideas were first noted in PhysOrg (posting as alanf777)
The 1,000-character posting limit made my comments rather hard to read), so I have extracted and clarified them in Physorg v1